A Level Grades: Have we got it right? (10/08/2020)

On the 18th of March 2020, within the context of a fast developing global pandemic, education secretary Gavin Williamson announced that for the 1st time in history, A level exams would be cancelled, along with GCSEs. Boris Johnson echoed the sentiments of anxious students when he stated that 'I understand their frustrations'. However he reassured this year's cohort that 'we will make sure' the student's 'progress isn't impeded and that in time they will get the qualifications they needed'. Over the coming months Ofqual, the non-ministerial government department that regulates qualifications and examinations, revealed that teachers needed to send in 2 pieces of information concerning individual students. Firstly, a grade based on 'classwork, non-exam assessments, mock exams, previous exam performance and any other records of student performance over the course of study'. This grade would then be paired with a rank position of all students within a given subject- 1 being most secure/ the highest attaining student. These 2 factors would then be assessed against statistical evidence 'such as the expected national outcomes for this year's students, the prior attainment of students at each school and college (at cohort, not individual level), and the results of the school or college in recent years'. This statistical analysis, aided by teacher predictions would then provide students with the, as Gavin Williamson stated, grades they 'need and deserve'

Scottish results

A similar system of producing grades for students was used in Scotland for their National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher exams. Upon these results being released on the 4th of August 2020 there was concern from academics and pupils alike that schools in deprived areas might be disadvantaged through the of prior school performance- a utilisation of historical records that leads to disproportionately lower exam results for poor students, compared to their richer counterparts. Although the SQA have referenced the trend that 'The most-deprived areas had done better than last year and the four-year average', these same statistics also show that 'the Higher pass rate for pupils from the most deprived backgrounds was reduced by 15.2 percentage points, compared with only 6.9 percentage points for the wealthiest pupils (against teacher estimates). This is reinforced from anecdotal evidence provided by individual students. An example of this is Holly from Helensburgh in Argyll and Bute who was predicted an A and 2 Bs. However, after being rewarded 3 Cs and a D (thus not meeting her requirements for Stirling University) she stated she was 'honestly devastated and really nervous for the future now'. Speaking in the New Statesman about these reduced grades (of the half a million submitted by schools 124,564 were adjusted down, fewer than 10,000 were bumped up), Stephen Bush said 'The certain downside of the moderated results is that some people will have worse grades than they would have received, and it will take them many, many years of work to recover- if they do at all'

Public reaction to Scottish results:

Following the release of the Scottish exam results, 100 school pupils formed a demonstration in Glasgow in protest at the way the grades were produced. They gathered at George Square to protest against the Scottish Qualifications Authority, raising questions about who the grading system disadvantaged or advantaged. One argument introduced was that pupils from deprived areas, despite their own individual achievements, were being graded down to their school's historical performance- portrayed through the expression 'Stop the postcode lottery'. Erin Bleakley, 17, had organised the protest after she saw her maths grade go from an A in her prelim, to a D from the SQA in the final results. This is reinforced by an online petition signed by over 35,000 people asking for exam results to be re-evaluated, in order to abstain from a 'classist marking scheme'

Sociological reaction to Scottish results:

Education Committee chairman Robert Halfon argued that 'there is a risk it (the grading system) will lead to unfair bias and discrimination against already disadvantaged groups. Although one may point towards the appeals process as a way of combating any concerns of inaccurate final grades, Halfon also noted that this system seems to favour 'the well-heeled and sharp-elbowed' who know how to navigate the system. This quote seems to be heavily influenced by Pierre Bourdieu's concepts of cultural and educational capital, in which middle class parents have the resources and contacts to improve their child's grades, whereas working class parents might not eg- think of the phrase 'it's not what you know, but who you know'. This risks increasing the attainment gap between middle class and working class students- that has been a focus of government educational policy for many years. However, the use of a 'classist marking scheme' simply seems to reproduce this inequality, echoing Daria Roithmayr's (2003) concept of 'locked in inequality'.

Changes to Scottish Results

Following the public backlash to the grading system, Nicola Sturgeon said steps would be taken to 'address concerns' and 'ensure that every young person gets a grade that recognises the work they have done' She stated that ministers had taken 'decisions we thought were the right ones', but after a 'lot of soul searching' they had now accepted they were not 'right'. She went on to state that the government would not 'dig our heels in and defend a position that in our hearts we know we didn't get right'. Following these sentiments it was announced that students would receive their original estimated grades. In response to John Swinney's announcement, Olivia Biggart was relieved that she would now obtain her estimated grades, after they were downgraded to two As and 3 Bs. She said 'I am over the moon because finally there is justice and I can pursue my career... I am happy with what he said- and glad he apologised to us'

Will this issue be reproduced in England's A level results?

As students in England are yet to receive their results, there has been concern that this issue of reduced grades will be reproduced. For example, a report by the Guardian stated that 'nearly 40% of A level grades submitted by teachers are set to be downgraded', meaning nearly '300,000 A levels issued are lower than the teacher assessments of more than 730,000 A level entries in England this summer. This statistic came from Huy Duong's statistical analysis based on Ofqual's announcement that A level grades would improve by 2% this year, but that the submitted teacher assessments would have lead to a 12% inflation in higher grades. Duong points towards how the issue of fluctuation in performance of schools across the last few years could impact this year's cohort eg- at Matthew Arnold School in West Oxford, the proportion of A* grades achieved in popular subjects varied from 1/19 to 3/10 between 2017 and 2019. This fluctuation, in Duong's words, 'mean that Ofqual's statistical modelling cannot make sense. The problem is that any statistical model is only as good as the data you feed it, and for a typical comprehensive school, there simply isn't enough A level data from 2017 to 2019 for any statistical modelling.' These reports certainly scare A level students such as myself, as we become concerned our grades will simply reflect our environment (historical performance of our school), instead of our own achievement (teacher estimates). We will wait to see how Gavin Williamson will act if he wants to avoid the controversy produced by the Scottish results

Is there still an issue with teacher predictions?

Although the focus of this blog post has been on how the use of historical data will influence students from deprived or marginalised groups, there has been concern that the use of teacher predictions will also reproduce patterns of inequality. A letter to the Department of Education from 21 Academics referenced Dr Gill Wyness' 2017 research report 'The Rules of the Game' which found that 'high attaining disadvantaged students are more likely to have their grades under-predicted than their richer counterparts'. This issue of teacher prediction is reinforced by a plethora of sociological research, most notably Howard Becker's (1970) research on the 'Ideal Pupil'- in which teachers view middle class students in a more positive light. The letter goes on to note that 'well over a quarter of black and minority group ethnic (BAME) GCSE students... are on free school meals'- voicing the concerns of signatories that those from ethnic minority backgrounds would be disproportionately affected by teachers making lower assessments of their potential. This issue is often referenced in Sociology, with David Gillborn (as a part of Critical Race Theory) arguing that inequality along ethnic lines is 'so deep rooted and so large that it is a practically inevitable feature of the education system'. This, supported by a Bristol University 2002 study, indicates that the use of teacher predictions in deciding this year's results will be plagued by bias that will penalise students from ethnic minority/ working class backgrounds. The letter concludes with 2 strategies to avoid bias in teacher judgements- 1) 'Provide teachers with more guidance and support on how to ensure more accurate predictions in order to reduce inconsistencies across students and pupils', 2) Provide teachers and schools with guidance on how to undertake Equality Impact Assessments of final grade predictions. This could involve schools diaggregating final predicted grades by protected characteristics, as well as SEND in order to monitor and reduce inconsistencies across different groups of pupils'.

Closing thoughts

I write this a few days before results day. I myself am an A level student, so am inevitably nervous for how my results day will be- even more so within this strange period of time (I'm even getting the results over the phone due to lockdown restrictions!). However, if anything- the pandemic and controversy surrounding the subsequent grading system has shown the importance of sociology in contemporary society. If I hadnt taken A level sociology I would have no understanding of how issues of class and ethncity could influence educational achievement. I'm excited for my next step in Sociology at university- but I'm just hoping that my peers and I get the grades we deserve.